Gold has retraced ~20.7% from its January 2026 all-time high as a re-accelerating Fed and firming dollar collide with a record pace of central-bank accumulation. This report defines the activation triggers that separate a tactical add from a chase in the $4,300–$4,500 zone.
IU Verdict: Tactical / Balanced — accumulate weakness in the $4,300–$4,500 zone; don't chase strength above $4,700.
The structural shift in official-sector gold accumulation — from Western central bank selling to emerging-market diversification away from dollar reserves. Net purchases exceeding 1,000 tonnes for the third consecutive year rewrite the demand floor for the metal.
Gold's relationship with real interest rates, the US dollar index, and inflation expectations — including the breakdown of traditional correlations as geopolitical risk premium decouples GC from the TIPS yield channel. This is the same Fed-cycle framework covered in IU University's Macro Cycle Positioning guide.
How multipolar fragmentation — sanctions weaponization, de-dollarization, and the China-Taiwan risk premium — is permanently re-rating gold's role in sovereign reserve portfolios and global asset allocation.
The structural supply ceiling — stagnant mine output, declining ore grades, rising all-in sustaining costs, and the decade-long underinvestment in greenfield development that constrains the market's ability to respond to price signals.
