West African supply dynamics, El Niño weather risk, and speculative positioning extremes at the center of a volatile commodity cycle.
Two of three activation triggers confirmed since June — a below-average 2026/27 crop survey and an intensifying El Niño. Updated price framework as CCU26 settles at $6,052/tonne, ~24% above the note's reference price.
The original 26-page framework — West African supply, El Niño risk to the 2026/27 main crop, COT positioning at a 3-year bearish extreme, persistent curve backwardation, and the complete IU trigger and price-zone framework.
