Dollar Dominance at an Inflection: DXY Structural Outlook and Reserve Currency Risk

The USD shed 10%+ in 2025 amid fiscal expansion and de-dollarization signals. Structural analysis of DXY mechanics, reserve currency dynamics, Fed policy divergence, and the portfolio implications of a multi-polar reserve system.

2025 DXY Move

−10%+

Multi-year low

Fed Funds Rate

4.25–4.50%

Q1 2026 hold

US Debt/GDP

~122%

CBO projection

USD Reserve Share

57.4%

COFER Q3 2025

DXY Range

98–105

12-month view

USD

US Dollar · DXY Index

DXY −10%+ · 2025 · Fed Policy · Reserve Dynamics

Dollar Dominance at an Inflection: DXY Structural Outlook

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Institutional research newsletter on US dollar structural dynamics, DXY mechanics, reserve currency risk, and Fed policy divergence implications.